International Journal of Infectious Diseases
○ Elsevier BV
Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match International Journal of Infectious Diseases's content profile, based on 126 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.10% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Saxe, G.; Shubov, A.; Smith, C. N.; Golshan, S.; Shekhtman, T.; Wilson, S.; Slater, D.; Bair, Z. J.; Beathard, C.; Davis, R. A.; MacElhern, L.; Kao, L. K.; Senowitz, P.; Gosnell, N.; Buchholz, D.; Aguilar-Carreno, H.
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Use of fungal mycelia, which has antiviral properties, constitutes a novel strategy for addressing existing and newly emerging viral diseases. We evaluated safety and feasibility of fungal mycelia (Fomitopsis officinalis and Trametes versicolor, FoTv) for treatment of COVID-19 and assessed its antiviral effects and potential to reduce symptoms. In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dual site (UCSD/UCLA medical centers) clinical trial we examined non-hospitalized patients who contracted mild-to-moderate COVID-19 [≤] 96 hours, and experienced symptom onset [≤] nine days, before enrollment. FoTv was safe, well-tolerated, and feasible for COVID-19 treatment. Minor differences in biochemical markers were observed between groups (26 FoTv, 24 Placebo). FoTv significantly reduced the number and severity of symptoms, particularly sore throat/cough, and in vitro SARS-CoV-2 (pseudovirus) cellular infection. In conclusion, FoTv was safe and reduced COVID-19 symptoms and cellular viral infection. Future studies should investigate therapeutic benefits of fungal mycelia for SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses. Clinicaltrials.gov registration:NCT04667247.
Vidaletti, L. P.; Dos Santos, A. M.; Hellwig, F.; Barros, A. J. D.
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Background: The traditional wealth index, based on principal component analysis (PCA), used in the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), suffers from urban bias, distorting estimates of health inequality. We compared the traditional index (PEAR1) with an alternative two-component polychoric PCA index (POLY2) using annual expenditure from 12 LSMS surveys as the gold standard to determine which provides more accurate SEP measures for equitable policy targeting. Methods: We compared the traditional wealth index (PEAR1) with a two-component polychoric PCA approach (POLY2) using 12 LSMS (Living Standards Measurement Study) surveys (2015-2022) from 12 African countries. Annual household consumption expenditure was the gold standard. We assessed agreement using weighted Cohen's kappa and validated against education (proportion of households with secondary or higher education) using the concentration index (CIX) and slope index of inequality (SII). Results: The POLY2 index showed higher agreement with expenditure quintiles (average national weighted kappa = 43.3%) than the PEAR1 index (35.1%), with notable improvements in urban (43.5% vs. 27.5%) and rural (35.3% vs. 22.4%) areas. POLY2 also attenuated extreme household distributions observed in PEAR1. Education validation showed that POLY2 produced intermediate inequality gradients between the flatter expenditure-based gradient and the steeper PEAR1-based gradient. Conclusion: The POLY2 wealth index is superior to the traditional index, reducing urban-rural bias and providing more accurate socioeconomic classifications. Its adoption in large-scale surveys such as DHS and MICS is recommended to improve equitable monitoring of health inequalities in low- and middle-income countries.
Gupta, M.; Zoega, H.; Stopard, I. J.; Liu, B.; Macartney, K.; Wood, J. G.; Hogan, A. B.
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Introduction: Respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity. Newly available vaccines to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease and encouraging clinical progress on vaccines for human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and parainfluenza (PIV) could reduce the disease burden beyond existing influenza and SARS-CoV-2 immunisation programs. However, evidence on the contribution of these viruses to respiratory disease burden across the lifespan remains limited. Methods: We reviewed studies from 01/2002-11/2025 reporting age-stratified, medically attended cases of influenza, and at least one of RSV, hMPV, or PIV, in high-income countries, excluding periods substantially overlapping with the COVID-19 pandemic. Using only studies that tested for all four viruses, we estimated the age-specific proportion of cases that were non-influenza (total across RSV, hMPV and PIV) compared to influenza using a mixed-effects logistic regression model. Results: Following exclusions and screening, 61 studies were included in the primary analysis comprising >500,000 detections of the four viruses. We found that a substantial proportion of medically attended respiratory illness in infants and young children was due to PIV, hMPV and RSV, rather than influenza, with a non-influenza virus proportion of 90.2% (95% CI 85.9-93.2%) in young infants aged 0-6 months. The converse was true for school-aged children, with a non-influenza virus proportion of 34.8% (95% CI 26.5-44.2%) in children aged 5-18 years. In adults aged 65+ years, non-influenza causes of medically attended disease were common at 60.2% (95% CI 50.0-69.5%). Restricting to studies reporting hospitalised cases (n=19) produced broadly similar age-specific trends in relative virus burden contributions. Discussion: We highlight the significant burden of medically attended illness due to PIV, hMPV and RSV across ages, particularly in infant and preschool-aged children and older adults, supporting the need for effective vaccines targeting this burden.
Khan, P. Y.; Govender, I.; McCreesh, N.; Sithole, M.; Mkwanzai, E.; Sweeney, S.; Ording-Jespersen, G.; Wong, E. B.; Hanekom, W.; Houben, R. M. G. J.; White, R. G. M. G. J.; Smit, T.; Smith, M. J.; Fielding, K.; Grant, A. D.
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Background Tuberculosis remains the leading infectious cause of death worldwide. In the WHO African region, declining incidence has coincided with antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up, though whether this reflects reduced progression to disease or reduced transmission is unclear. We evaluated how ART and symptom status influence within-household Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) transmission risk. Methods We conducted a case-contact household study in rural South Africa, enrolling index adults with bacteriologically-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. MTBC immunoreactivity was measured in all child household contacts (aged 2-14 years) as a proxy measure of within-household transmission. We assessed the influence of index person ART status and symptom status, and explored effect-measure modification of the association between index person HIV status and transmission risk by sex. Results Among 755 child contacts of 296 index persons, effective ART was not associated with within-household MTBC transmission risk (risk ratio [RR], 1.07; 95% CI, 0.66-1.74). Among PLHIV engaged in ART care, WHO TB four-symptom screen (WHO4SS) status was not associated with transmission risk (RR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.43-1.47), although absence of reported cough reduced risk (RR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.38-0.96). A pronounced interaction between sex and HIV status was observed: HIV-negative women had the highest within-household MTBC transmission risk (30.5% vs. 14.3% in women with HIV) whereas risks were similar between HIV-positive and HIV-negative men. Conclusions We found no evidence that effective ART or WHO4SS status influenced within-household MTBC transmission risk, though confidence intervals were wide. Absence of reported cough was associated with lower risk, and transmission risk was highest among child contacts of HIV-negative women. These findings suggest reported cough is a useful marker of transmission risk and that routine tuberculosis screening within ART care may reduce transmission from PLHIV; intensified efforts are nonetheless needed to achieve earlier tuberculosis detection in HIV-negative individuals.
Munyangi wa Nkola, J.; Akilimali Zalagile, P.; Lukuke Mbutshu, H.; Kabala Munyemo, S.; Ramazani Bin Eradi, I.; CAMARA, A.
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Background: Artemisinin-based combination therapies remain the mainstay of malaria control strategies; nevertheless, the advent of genetic markers linked to partial artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum has elicited substantial concern across African settings. To assess the prevalence, geographic distribution, and clinical associations of these molecular markers, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational cohort studies.Methods: We conducted a search of cohort studies published between January 2015 and June 2025, following PRISMA 2020 guidelines. We queried databases including PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, and CINAHL. Eligibility required prospective enrollment of patients, longitudinal monitoring (therapeutic efficacy studies), and pfkelch13 propeller domain genotyping.Results: A meta-analytical synthesis of 888 isolates from six core prospective cohorts revealed a pooled prevalence of 6% (95% CI: 2.1%-11.8%) for validated pfkelch13 mutations. A profound geographic dichotomy was identified: while West and Central African cohorts maintained a 0% prevalence, East African hotspots showed significant expansion, with prevalence reaching 12.8% in Rwanda and up to 25.5% in Northern Uganda; high statistical heterogeneity (, ) reflects this biological divergence. Conclusions: These findings highlight the established and expanding presence of artemisinin partial resistance in East Africa. Standardized surveillance is essential to adapt malaria control policies across the continent. Keywords: Africa; artemisinin resistance; clinical indicators; pfkelch13 gene; molecular markers; partial resistance; Plasmodium falciparum.
Mwenda, M.; Oliveira, R.; Mambwe, B.; Chiyesu, C.; Bohmeier, B.; Mosler, K.; Phiri, M.; Sinyoolo, A.; Chiposa, V.; Namonje, T.; Munsanje, M.; Ilunga, M.; Chirwa, C.; Mwape, I.; Mumba, D.; Coppee, R.; Stoica, M.-A.; Veiga, M. I.; Drakeley, C.; Pearson, R.; Verity, R.; Chirwa, J.; Mockenhaupt, F. P.; Vvn Loon, W.; Portugal, S.; Simulundu, E.; Bwalya, S.; Miller, J. M.; Chilengi, R.; Fanaka, C.; Bridges, D. J.; Hawela, M.; Hendry, J. A.
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Background Artemisinin derivatives are central to first-line treatment of both uncomplicated and severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Emerging artemisinin partial resistance in East Africa threatens to spread across the continent. Methods In two cross-sectional studies in Zambia in 2024, we genotyped the artemisinin resistance-associated gene Pfkelch13. In Kaoma, western Zambia, we evaluated the percentage of patients with day-3 parasite positivity following treatment with artemisinin-based combination therapy, and ex vivo parasite susceptibility to dihydroartemisinin (the active metabolite of artemisinin). We also assessed longitudinal changes in Pfkelch13 mutation prevalence in Kaoma using isolates collected from 2018 through 2026. Results We identified a novel mutation, Pfkelch13 A724E, in 52% (113 of 217) of isolates from Western Province, 51% (94 of 184) of isolates from North-Western Province, and 11.7% (229 of 1,949) of isolates country-wide. In Kaoma, 28% (21 of 75) of patients carrying Pfkelch13 A724E mutant parasites before treatment were parasite positive on day 3, compared with 0% (0 of 23) of patients with the wild-type allele (P=0.003). Within day-3 positive patients, the proportion of A724E mutant parasites increased significantly after treatment (P = 0.013). The prevalence of Pfkelch13 A724E in Kaoma increased steadily from 0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0 to 22%) in 2018 to 79% (95% CI, 73 to 85%) in 2026. Conclusions A novel Pfkelch13 mutation conferring partial resistance to artemisinin is spreading in Zambia. Additional clinical evaluations are urgently needed in the region. (Funded by the Gates Foundation, INV-048316).
Fanelli, F.; Parino, F.; Poletto, C.; Colizza, V.
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The 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has already generated international spread to Uganda, raising concerns about further regional and international dissemination. Using International Air Transport Association origin-destination passenger flows, we assessed relative exposure to Ebola virus disease importation into Europe under six outbreak expansion scenarios reflecting plausible pathways of geographical spread, including cross-border transmission and amplification in highly connected regional capitals. Relative exposure patterns remained largely unchanged under localized transmission in eastern DRC and border-spillover scenarios. Expansion into South Sudan generated a first structural increase in importation pressure to Europe through the connectivity associated with Juba, while hypothetical amplification in Kampala, Kigali, and Kinshasa substantially increased importation pressure and reshaped exposure patterns across Europe. Across all scenarios, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom remained among the most exposed countries. Mobility-informed scenario analyses support preparedness as the geography of the outbreak evolves.
Jawahar Kanth, J. S.; Anish, T. M. R.; Odhiambo, B.; Lwembawo, K. D.; Micheal, S.; Arinaitwe, J.; Nakiyingi, L.
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Tobacco control treaties were written for billboards and television, not for the people now selling lifestyles to young Africans. As mobile internet saturates East African cities, social media influencers have become an unmeasured channel, especially when it comes to tobacco promotion. We assessed the prevalence of tobacco use, its association with influencer exposure, and how urban youth interpret that exposure in two capitals with different tobacco laws. We conducted a comparative mixed-methods study among youth aged 18-29 years in Kampala, Uganda, and Nairobi, Kenya (January-August 2025), combining (i) a cross-sectional survey using systematic sampling at youth-dense venues (n=772), (ii) four online focus group discussions (FGDs; n=40), and (iii) content analysis of 30 tobacco-related posts from high-reach influencers (greater than 50,000 followers). We used chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression, thematic analysis (Braun and Clarke), and descriptive engagement metrics. Ever tobacco use among urban youth in East Africa was 29.3% (226/772), similar in Kampala (30.7%) and Nairobi (28.0%; p=0.409). After adjustment, exposure to influencers promoting tobacco independently predicted ever use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-2.82; p=0.001), alongside male sex (aOR 2.35) and age 26-29 years (aOR 1.99). Tertiary education (aOR 0.45) and never seeing tobacco content (aOR 0.26) were protective. Posts framed tobacco as aspirational lifestyle; 77% of sampled comments were positive and 47.5% expressed interest in trying the product. Influencer exposure behaved as a modifiable risk factor of a magnitude comparable to established demographic drivers. Tobacco control in the region must move from print-era advertising bans to platform governance, mandatory disclosure of paid promotion, and youth-led counter-marketing.
Yi, B.
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In spite of well-established global immune landscape, SARS-CoV-2 is still able to further spread and continue causing infection waves. The current understanding about the reason behind is limited, and it is still difficult to predict the evolution or spreading tread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate whether the establishment of population immunity has changed the virus evolution or spreading pattern. In this investigation, one overall analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in the past several years have been carried out through one thorough genomic epidemiology study, with Germany being chosen as one representative location in view of the systemic efforts for genomic surveillance. The growth advantage of a few predominant variants in its early spreading period has been evaluated through a logistic regression model. The results have revealed that the major circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants since 2023 are mainly derived from the Omicron BA.2 family. Since middle of 2024, most predominant variants were produced primarily through recombination, indicating that the evolution derived from recombination might be the major driving force for the continuous spread of SARS-CoV-2 despite the existence of population immunity. Furthermore, the lower growth advantage of recently emerged variants might possibly lead to a tread of reduction in the frequency of infection wave. The information revealed from this investigation suggests that although short-term spreading tread can be affected by specific virus feature as well as local immunity landscape, the long-term spreading tread is mainly decided by the genomic diversity of the viruses, and can be predicted through phylogenetic and genomic epidemiology investigation. The results have emphasized the importance of maintaining the efforts for genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, which is essential from both medical and research perspectives.
Mapahla, L.; Kleinschmidt, I.; Silal, S. P.
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Artemisinin partial resistance has not yet been reported in southern Africa. Therefore, the magnitude of the spread of artemisinin partial resistance in this region is yet to be quantified. Using a two strain metapopulation modelling framework, we explored possible spread of artemisinin partial resistance in eight connected countries with high level of human movement. We explored three scenarios in which artemisinin partial resistance may first enter circulation: low malaria transmission level country; high malaria transmission level country and all countries and compared to an artemisinin partial resistance free scenario. Partial rank correlation coefficient sensitivity analysis was performed to identify key parameters that drive artemisinin partial resistance spread. Our model simulations show that high mobility between countries can increase the spread of mutations associated with delayed clearance. Suggesting that artemisinin partial resistance will be confirmed (>5% partial resistant cases) after 14 years of circulation if it is to appear in southern Africa. We confirm that human movement, both human-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human probabilities of transmission, were significant and highly sensitive parameters in the spread of artemisinin partial resistance. Human mobility between countries can facilitate the spread of artemisinin partial resistance. More research is needed to identify strategies to preserve the efficacy of artemisinin-based combination therapies in the presence of partial artemisinin resistance, which may eventually lead to treatment failure and necessitate regimen replacement.
Sinharoy, S.; Mink, T.; Ogutu, E. A.; Patrick, M.; Nuncio, M. d. C. A.; Bolanos Gamez, M. V.; Oglesby, H.; Ngo, C. P.; Antonio, S.; Medina Lopez, E. R.; Mwangi, P.; Koome, P.; Otuya, P. A.; Ruto, P.; Otieno Onyango, R.; Caruso, B. A.
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Women's disproportionate responsibility for unpaid domestic and care work, including water collection, remains a barrier to gender equality globally and may constrain women's ability to engage in income-generating activities. We compared women's and men's time use in rural Kenya and Honduras and assessed whether women's time spent on water collection and income-generating activities differed between communities that had or had not received an improved water source from World Vision. We also examined the measurement of time-use agency among women and men. In-person surveys were conducted in July-August 2024 with 95 participants (48 women, 47 men) in six Kenyan communities and 102 participants (53 women, 49 men) in six Honduran communities. Surveys included a 24-hour time-use recall module and items on time-use agency. Analyses compared time use by gender and by community intervention status (improved vs. not yet improved water supply), and confirmatory factor analysis assessed the validity of the time-use agency measure. Women in both study sites spent substantially more time than men on unpaid domestic and care work activities, including cooking, cleaning, laundry, and caregiving. In Kenya, women also spent significantly more time collecting water. Men spent more time sleeping (Kenya), on paid work (Honduras), unpaid agricultural work (both settings), and traveling (both settings). Across both countries, there were no significant differences between intervention and comparison communities in women's time spent on water collection or income-generating activities. In Kenya, most respondents reported high influence over their time, and six items showed strong validity for measuring instrumental time-use agency. Women's time burdens remained high even in communities that had received improved water sources, including at the household level. Our results suggest that more transformative water infrastructure, combined with interventions that address gendered social norms, may be needed to meaningfully reduce women's domestic work burden and support their economic empowerment.
Fisshatsion, A. B.; Zewude, Y. A.; Nisro, A. M.; Abebe, R. F.
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Background: Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide and remains a major public health challenge. In Ethiopia, it is the second leading cause of cancer deaths, with around 8,000 new cases and 6,000 deaths each year. Region?specific data on the prevalence and predictors of precancerous lesions remain scarce, yet such information is vital for guiding targeted reproductive health strategies. This study therefore examined the prevalence and predictors of cervical precancerous lesions among women aged 21-60 years undergoing Pap smear screening in public hospitals in Hawassa City, Sidama Region. Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 241 women attending Pap smear screening at public hospitals in Hawassa City from March to August 2025. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected via interviews and medical records. Lesions were classified based on the standardized international framework for reporting cervical cytology results from Pap smears per the Bethesda system. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors p<0.05). Result: Of 241 women screened (mean age 35.3 years), cervical epithelial abnormalities were detected in 52 (prevalence 21.6%). Atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance was the most common abnormality (16.6%). Multivariable analysis showed HIV infection was significantly associated with precancerous lesions (AOR = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.69-8.12, p<0.05), while hormonal contraceptive use was protective (AOR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.11-0.67, p<0.05). Conclusion: These results underscore the urgent need to strengthen cervical cancer prevention through targeted screening and early intervention. Integrating routine HIV testing with Pap smear programs would be especially valuable. Health authorities should expand accessible screening for women aged 21-60, with particular attention to those living with HIV, to help reduce the burden of precancerous lesions.
Mettananda, C.; Sivasumithran, K.; Ranaweera, L.; Madhubhashini, A.; Ranawaka, C.; Pathmeswaran, A.; Dassanayake, A.
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Background The European Association for the Study of the Liver (ESAL) - Steatotic Liver Disease (SLD) screening algorithm involves two steps; initial screening with FIB-4 followed by referral for vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in patients likely to have significant fibrosis (SF). However, VCTE is not widely available in resource-limited settings. Aim To optimise the EASL SLD screening algorithm for resource-poor settings using machine learning (ML). Methods We analysed data from 964 adults aged [≥]35 years who underwent VCTE at a tertiary referral centre in Sri Lanka between November 2024 and 2025. Multiple ML models using different methods and variable combinations were trained on 80% of the dataset and tested on the remaining 20%. Best models were selected based on performance and externally validated using data from 430 patients who underwent VCTE before November 2024. Model performance was compared with the FIB-4 using confusion matrices. Results A Random Forest model incorporating age, AST, ALT, and platelet count separately, rather than using FIB-4, outperformed. The all-variable ML model showed the best predictive performance for SF, with accuracy of 77.2%, recall of 0.762, precision of 0.778, and AUC-ROC of 0.818. The variables used in the model, in descending order of feature importance, were AST, platelet count, BMI, ALT, age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, sex, family history, hypothyroidism, diabetes complication and smoking. External validation demonstrated 75.1% accuracy and an AUC of 0.779. When used as the first step of the SLD screening algorithm, the all-variable ML model identified 37 (17.1%) additional true positives and reduced false-negative diagnoses by 50% compared with FIB-4. Conclusions ML-based models were more effective than the FIB-4 score as the first-line screening tool for VCTE referral, substantially improving the identification of patients with significant fibrosis in this South Asian cohort.
Herrera-Diestra, J. L.; Bi, K.; Ptak, S.; Ertem, Z.; Al-amery, A.; Harris, M.; Meyers, L. A.
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Background. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will bring an estimated 1--5~million international visitors to 11~US host cities between June~11 and July~19, 2026---the largest tournament in history. Large-scale international gatherings accelerate importation of infectious diseases from diverse source populations. Advance estimation of importation risk is essential for public health preparedness and surveillance prioritization. Methods. We developed a Poisson importation framework applied to five diseases (dengue fever, influenza, malaria, measles, and pertussis) across the 11~US venue cities. Three nested travel models of increasing resolution were constructed: a baseline model using routine June~2024 arrival data; a World Cup--adjusted model incorporating projected visitor growth factors; and a schedule-driven model routing WC fans to specific cities based on match assignments. WHO incidence and BTS T-100 routing fractions were combined with Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation (5,000 Uniform draws on under-reporting and travel-while-infectious parameters) to yield median importation estimates with 95\% uncertainty intervals. Results. Dengue posed the highest importation risk at most venue cities under the schedule-driven model (median $\Lambda > 10$ expected importations from Brazil alone; 95\% uncertainty interval 5.9--33.1), robust across the full literature-supported parameter range; Atlanta was the exception, where malaria probability exceeded dengue, driven by direct travel from West and Central African nations. Influenza ranked second at most cities, coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere winter peak. Pertussis showed broad geographic spread but carries the widest relative uncertainty, as the assumed detection rate sits at the upper bound of the literature range. Background tourism accounted for the dominant share of total importation risk; the World Cup fan increment contributed approximately 8.3\% of projected arrivals for WC-qualified nations. Conclusions. This Poisson importation framework, built entirely from publicly available data, provides reproducible importation risk estimates for mass gathering events. The framework extends to additional diseases, cities, and gatherings, offering a transparent baseline complementary to proprietary modeling systems.
Li, K.; Perniciaro, S.; Kwon, J.; Grubaugh, N. D.; Weinberger, D. M.; Pitzer, V. E.
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Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) causes acute lower respiratory infections, primarily affecting young children and older adults, with seasonal outbreaks peaking annually in March or April in the United States and other temperate regions in the Northern hemisphere. However, the factors driving HMPV seasonality in the United States remain poorly understood. We analyzed laboratory-confirmed HMPV cases and age-specific emergency department visits across 10 US regions, fitting an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to assess spatiotemporal patterns and investigate the influence of environmental variables and viral interference from RSV on HMPV transmission rates. We found that models incorporating climate variables into the transmission rate, including vapor pressure, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and minimum temperature, could not capture the timing of HMPV activity across all regions. Instead, HMPV timing was associated with RSV activity, with the HMPV transmission rate reduced in the presence of RSV. We showed that, unlike RSV, only models incorporating viral interference could reproduce the biennial pattern of HMPV observed in some regions, characterized by alternating late-small and early-large epidemics. Furthermore, our model successfully reproduced post-COVID-19 HMPV and RSV epidemics and predicted that RSV interventions are not likely to lead to a substantial increase in HMPV activity despite decreasing competition from RSV. Our work unravels the spatiotemporal dynamics of HMPV and its interaction with RSV, informing future seasonal forecasting and intervention strategies for HMPV.
Eze, C. C.; Murphy-Okpala, N. N.; Ekeke, N.; Nwafor, C.; Egbule, D.; Njoku, M.; Ezeakile, O.; Meka, A.; Iyama, F. S.; Ogbuefi, E.; Ugwu, O.; Solomon, M.; Adesigbin, C.; Chukwu, J.
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Introduction Reducing delays in leprosy case detection is essential for achieving global leprosy targets. Accurate measurement of these delays and their determinants relies largely on patient-reported data, as routine health records are often inadequate. The leprosy case detection delay (CDD) questionnaire, developed under the Post Exposure Prophylaxis for Leprosy (PEP4LEP) project, has been validated in Ethiopia, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Indonesia. However, it has not been adapted or validated for Nigeria or any major Nigerian indigenous language. This study aimed to culturally adapt and validate the CDD questionnaire for Igbo-speaking populations in Nigeria. Methodology/Principal Findings The CDD questionnaire underwent a standardized cross-cultural adaptation process. Content validity was assessed using item- and scale-level content validity indices, while construct validity was evaluated through hypothesis testing. Reproducibility was assessed using test-retest and inter-rater reliability; agreement using the Bland-Altman method and the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank test; reliability using Spearmans rank correlation coefficient and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC); and internal consistency using Cronbachs alpha. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews with persons affected by leprosy at two time points separated by at least two weeks. Participants (n=100) had a mean age of 45.1 years (SD=18.7). Mean CDD was 77.2 months at baseline and 77.9 months at retest. The instrument demonstrated excellent content validity (I-CVI/S-CVI: 0.90-1.00), good internal consistency (Cronbachs =0.77), and excellent test-retest reliability (ICC=0.996, 95% CI: 0.994-0.997). Test and retest measurements were highly correlated ({rho}=0.985, p<0.001), with no evidence of systematic change over time (p=0.864). Seventy-two percent of participants reported identical CDD values across assessments. All items from the original English version were retained without modification. Conclusion/Significance The Igbo version of the CDD questionnaire demonstrated good validity and reliability and is suitable for assessing leprosy case detection delay among Igbo-speaking populations in Nigeria
Zeng, R.; Zuo, Z.; Yu, H.; Jin, Y.; Wang, Y.; Lv, H.; Wang, G.; Zhang, N.; He, H.; Huang, X.; Zhang, X.; Su, Q.; Xu, J.
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Background: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has demonstrated a significant reduction in HIV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM), however, low medication adherence hinders its preventative effectiveness. Traditional approaches, such as health education and face-to-face inquiry (HEF), have demonstrated certain efficacy in improving PrEP adherence. However, these methods are resource-intensive and often plagued by delays, rendering timely and precise interventions challenging. This randomized controlled trial aims to assess the effectiveness of an intervention comprising AI-chatbot for PrEP (PrEP-bot) and Smart pillbox (SPB) (PrEP-bot-SPB) strategy to improve PrEP adherence among MSM compared to HEF.Methods and analysis: A three-arm, multicenter, open-lable RCT will be conducted with Chinese MSM [≥]18 years. A total of 300 participants will be recruited through three sources, including hospitals, community-based organizations (CBOs) and peer referral in five cities: Shenzhen, Beijing, Qingdao, Hangzhou and Zhengzhou. After completing baseline survey, participants will be randomized evenly into interventions or control groups: the PrEP-bot group, the PrEP-bot-SPB group, and the HEF control group. Participants in the PrEP-bot group will be granted access to an AI-chatbot agent through WeChat. This agent will: 1) generate personalized PrEP medication plans; 2) provide medication reminders and PrEP-related health check-ups notifications; 3) inquire about missed doses to deliver tailored interventions; 4) answer participant questions about PrEP using guideline-based knowledge. Participants in the PrEP-bot-SPB group will receive both the SPB and the PrEP-bot interventions. SPB could delivers medication reminders. Participants in HEF group will receive a health education pamphlet introducing PrEP and knowledge related to PrEP medication adherence at baseline and face-to-face inquiry every three months. Outcomes will be assessed for both short-term and medium-to-long-term effects. The primary objective is the effectiveness in improving PrEP adherence measured by self-report, Eight-Item Morisky medication adherence scale (MMAS-8) and concentration of Tenofovir in dried blood spots (DBS) (PrEP adherence [≥]90%) at 3 months follow-up. Secondary outcomes include: 1) effectiveness in preventing HIV infection measured by HIV-self test (HIVST); 2) effectiveness of PrEP-related health check-ups; 3) the effectiveness, feasibility, acceptability, and user satisfaction with the PrEP-bot; 4) effectiveness in improving PrEP adherence at 6-month, 9-month and 12-month follow-up periods. All participants will receive quarterly follow-up visits during the 12-month study period. Intention-to-treat analysis and per protocol set (PPS) analysis will be used.Results: Recruitment and enrollment of participants began in January 2026 and is currently ongoing.Discussion: This study is expected to establish a novel AI-based intervention model for PrEP, providing innovative strategies for HIV control among MSM populations. If the PrEP-bot is proven non-inferior to HEF, it could offer users real-time, precise, and personalized interventions while simultaneously addressing PrEP-related inquiries and health check-ups reminders. Importantly, this approach would achieve significant reductions in resource requirements for implementation and maintenance and be more cost-effective. With the ongoing advancement of AI technologies, PrEP-bot holds substantial promise for widespread implementation in PrEP adherence, potentially revolutionizing HIV prevention for MSM in China through this innovative intervention modality.Trial registration: ChiCTR2500111280 (Chinese Clinical Trial Registry). Date of registration: 29 October 2025.
Kinoshita, R.; Suzuki, M.; Yoneoka, D.
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During the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, we projected potential airline-mediated importation risk using contemporary airline network and an externally calibrated Ebola importation hazard. Effective-distance analyses identified major international hub countries, including Belgium, France, South Africa, Kenya, and the United Arab Emirates, as higher-probability gateways within 30 days. These early projections provide a reproducible framework for real-time international situational awareness, while emphasizing that importation risk does not imply local transmission risk.
BEAVOGUI, A. H.; Doumbia, S.; Kieh, M.; Leigh, B.; Sow, S.; Lhomme, E.; Ben-Farhat, S.; Dubois Cauwelaert, N.; Roy, C.; Diouf, W.; Idrissa, S.; Diarra, S.; Millimouno, N. P.; Diallo, F. A.; Kamara, M.; Pratt, D.; Dicko, I.; Kennedy, S. B.; Esperou, H.; Choi, E. M.; Kpetigo, A.-M. D.; D'Ortenzio, E.; Diallo, A.; Lancrey-javal, S.; Hamze, B.; Schwimmer, C.; Wiedemann, A.; Ayouba, A.; Peeters, M.; Lane, H. C.; Higgs, E.; Watson-Jones, D.; Yazdanpanah, Y.; Greenwood, B.; RICHERT, L.; Levy, Y.; PREVAC study team,
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Background: The World Health Organization has expanded its recommendations for prophylactic Ebola vaccination for at-risk populations. Durable vaccine-induced immunity is important for sustaining outbreak preparedness in regions with recurrent Ebola virus disease (EVD). We assessed five-year persistence of vaccine-induced immune responses in adults and children from the PREVAC trial. Methods: Two large randomised phase 2 trials (NCT02876328), in adults and children aged [≥]1 year, were conducted in four west African countries. Participants were randomly assigned to placebo or to one of three Ebola vaccine strategies: Ad26.ZEBOV followed by MVA-BN-Filo at 56 days; rVSV{Delta}G-ZEBOV-GP followed by placebo; or rVSV{Delta}G-ZEBOV-GP followed by a homologous booster dose at 56 days. After 12 months of follow-up, the primary results were published, participants unblinded to their vaccine assignment, and follow-up continued for 60 months. After Month 24, placebo group recipients were offered active vaccination. Anti Ebola virus glycoprotein Immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrations were measured for 5 years. Findings: 1401 adults and 1401 children were initially randomized, and 1315 (93.9%) adults and 1322 (94.4%) children attended at least one long-term visit. Retention was high, with 95% followed beyond 1 year and 83% completion at 5-year follow-up. For the three vaccine strategies, antibody geometric mean concentrations (GMC) declined modestly between Months 12 and 24, followed by a stable plateau from Months 24 to 60. At Month 60, antibody GMC were higher in the rVSV-based groups (1099 and 1216 EU/ml for adults; 1982 and 2347 EU/ml for children) than in the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo group (252 adults and 645 EU/ml children). Antibody persistence at Month 60 was heterogeneous, varying by age, sex, country, and baseline IgG concentration. Interpretation: Licensed Ebola vaccines induced sustained antibody responses in adults and children for up to 5 years. While the protective antibody level is unknown, these data demonstrate long-lasting immune responses from currently employed vaccine strategies.
Noviyanti, R.; Setya Utami, R. A.; Smith, L.; Trianty, L.; Ekawati, L.; Sutanto, E.; Amalia, R.; Amelia, A. R.; Hafidzah, M. A.; Fadila, N.; Puspitasari, A. M.; Nisa, F. A.; Hidar, H.; Kariodimedjo, P.; Farinisia, A.; Hutahaean, G.; Christian, M.; Kesuma, T. A.; Subekti, D.; Soebianto, S.; Wulandari, F.; Nuraeni, N.; Budiman, W.; Ertanto, Y.; Widiarta, M. D.; Furkan, F.; Nekkab, N.; Mazhari, R.; White, M.; Robinson, L.; Longley, R.; Baird, J. K.; Mueller, I.
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Summary Background Persistent transmission from relapsing Plasmodium vivax infections threatens malaria elimination programs in the Asia-Pacific and Americas. Tools to identify people at risk of relapse are urgently required. We aimed to validate a panel of eight P. vivax serological biomarkers for predicting future relapses. Methods In this observational study, soldiers returning from malaria-endemic Papua to non-endemic East Java, Indonesia, were screened at enrolment using antibody measurement (Luminex) and trained random forest classification algorithms, then followed for 6 months. Active case detection was performed fortnightly by microscopy. Algorithms classified soldiers as recently infected (last nine months) and thus at risk of relapse, based on anti-vivax antibody measurements at enrolment. Findings Between December 2018 and July 2022, 592 soldiers were enrolled, with 553 completing follow-up; 119 experienced a P. vivax relapse. Of these, 102 were correctly classified as at risk of relapse at enrolment, corresponding to 86% sensitivity and 86% specificity, with an AUC of 0.92. Interpretation P. vivax serological biomarkers can identify people at risk of relapse with high sensitivity and specificity and could be used as a novel public health intervention, P. vivax serological testing and treatment (PvSeroTAT), to reduce relapse-driven transmission.